GJP: #1047 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Iran before 1 September 2012?

Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-01.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-12-14
• gwern said “see also air-strike by 1 september 2012 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3159” on 2011-12-14
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2012-08-17
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-09-01.