GJP: #1048 Will S&P downgrade the AAA long-term credit rating of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) by 30 March 2012?

Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-03-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-20.

• gwern estimated 55% on 2011-12-14
• gwern said “background: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8938191/SandP-puts-EFSF-bailout-fund-on-review-for-downgrade.html” on 2011-12-14
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-01-20.