GJP: #1053 By 31 December 2012, will the UK officially announce its intention* to withdraw from the EU?

Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-12-19
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 20% on 2011-12-22
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.