GJP: #1051 Will Mario Monti resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Italy before 1 January 2013?

Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-12-19
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 40% on 2011-12-22
• alleniaccarino estimated 50% on 2012-01-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 42% on 2012-01-03
• JoshuaZ said “He’s resigned but will stay on until the new election or a caretaker government. Any objections to marking as correct? ” on 2013-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.