GJP: #1054 Will a North Korean or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter South Korea before 1 June 2012?

Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-06-01.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2011-12-19
• gwern said “note the rules judge this narrowly: This definition of “military force” excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, “rebels,” independent militias, or terrorist actors.” on 2011-12-19
• gwern said “Also outside the scope of “foreign or multinational military force” are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by a sponsoring nation” on 2011-12-19
• gwern said ““Fired on”, however, is defined more broadly, to include bombs, missiles, chemical or other unconventional weapons or small arms” on 2011-12-19
• gwern said “ fired on non-captive South Korean troops, soil, or naval vessels (including citizens within South Korean territory), military installations, or military vehicles (e.g., ships, subs, tanks, jets), not including South Korean embassies abroad.” on 2011-12-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 42% on 2011-12-20
• JoshuaZ said “Any objections if I mark this wrong? ” on 2012-06-01
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-06-01.