Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html)

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-20.

• Laurent Bossavit estimated 10% on 2011-12-20
• gwern said “displace over general user populations? like, globally? I wouldn’t buy this even for a prediction like ‘majority of American authentications conducted via biometrics’. just think of the web infrastructure…” on 2011-12-20
• gwern estimated 7% on 2011-12-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-12-20
• Grognor estimated 3% on 2011-12-21
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% and said “passwords and private keys are obviously superior” on 2011-12-21
• endoself estimated 10% and said “Is there any reason that this prediction would be more credible today than it would have been 5 years ago?” on 2011-12-22
• Serge estimated 12% on 2011-12-22
• Sniffnoy estimated 2% on 2011-12-23
• torekp estimated 5% and said “I’ll interpret this with gwern’s phrase ‘majority of American authentications conducted via biometrics’.” on 2011-12-27
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% and said “This will probably be true for IBM employees while at work.” on 2011-12-31
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% and said “biometrics do not scale to what passwords do.” on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-12-20.
• JoshuaZ said “I guess I was way underconfident on that one. ” on 2016-12-20