Within 5 years, 80% of the global population will own at least one mobile computing device (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-digital-divide-will-cease-to-exist.html)

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.

• Laurent Bossavit estimated 10% on 2011-12-20
• gwern estimated 50% and said “cf http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3125 – 80% = ~5.6b; >4b cellphone users now. any cellphone = mobile computing device?” on 2011-12-20
• Laurent Bossavit said “Smartphone yes, basic cell no, given the context.” on 2011-12-21
• Anubhav estimated 30% on 2011-12-21
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 15% on 2011-12-22
• themusicgod1 estimated 36% and said “ipad/desktop/laptop users + smartphone users = not enough.” on 2016-10-09
• Laurent Bossavit   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-02-25.