Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucus.

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-04.

• RobertLumley estimated 40% on 2011-12-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-12-20
• faws estimated 42% and said “Nate Silver’s model says 52%. 70% chance that the model is reasonably accurate, 20% prior. ” on 2011-12-20
• gwern estimated 50% and said “I’m not smarter than nate silver’s model” on 2011-12-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2012-01-03
• HonoreDB   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-04.
• gwern said “Placed third after the two tied for first place, romney & santorum. (Santorum? what the heck)” on 2012-01-04