Reddit: “Dawn of The Final Day” meme on frontpage on 2012/12/20.

Created by muflax on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-21.

• muflax estimated 90% on 2011-12-20
• muflax said ““number one” is too hard to catch, so just frontpage; see http://www.reddit.com/r/gaming/comments/njxro/i_going_to_go_ahead_and_predict_that_exactly_one/” on 2011-12-20
• muflax changed the deadline from “on 0201-12-20” on 2011-12-20
• gwern estimated 50% and said “might not be submitted; might not rocket to front page – people might be tired.” on 2011-12-20
• muflax said “didn’t see it; genuinely surprised by that” on 2012-12-21
• muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-21.