Microsoft will buy RIM —Cringely

Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2011-12-21
• gwern said “http://www.cringely.com/2011/12/for-mobile-oss-threes-a-crowd/” on 2011-12-21
• gwern said “if it doesn’t, it will license Android: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4943” on 2011-12-21
• faws estimated 18% and said “They bid for Yahoo, but otherwise I can’t recall Mircosoft making a purchase of that scale. I think they’ll push windows 8 on high end phones instead. ” on 2011-12-21
• gwern estimated 0% and said “see also http://seekingalpha.com/article/315331-amazon-making-blackberry-cool-again” on 2011-12-27
• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-12-27
• gwern estimated 50% and said “Brian Breslin agrees http://brianbreslin.com/2012-predictions/ and puts it at <5b – switching to neutral as breslin has a good track record” on 2012-01-08
• RandomThinker estimated 15% and said “Microsoft is going to beat RIM, and not buy them (until RIM is thoroughly beaten, which won’t happen by 1/2013)” on 2012-05-01
• dhoe estimated 20% on 2012-08-12
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.