Conditional on not buying RIM, Microsoft will license Android. —Cringely

Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-12-21
• gwern said “http://www.cringely.com/2011/12/for-mobile-oss-threes-a-crowd/” on 2011-12-21
• gwern said “for buying RIM: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4942” on 2011-12-21
• faws estimated 9% and said “Not with Ballmer in charge. I don’t think his successor will do that either. It would be an even worse admission of defeat than leaving the phone market altogether and I don’t really see a long term strategic advantage either. ” on 2011-12-21
• dhoe estimated 5% on 2012-08-12
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.