The Dow Jones will finish 2012 below 12000 pts

Created by leejhancox on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

• leejhancox estimated 50% on 2011-12-22
• HonoreDB estimated 15% on 2011-12-24
• gwern said “currently 12099. that’s within possible ranges for a fall today. going to leave judgment for tomorrow and see what the Dow actually closes as.” on 2011-12-31
• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-12-31
• PseudonymousUser said “finish 2012? ” on 2012-01-01
• gwern said “I think given the low confidence and the recorded date, we should interpret this as ‘finished 2011’. OP didn’t make many predictions, so a typo is easily possible” on 2012-01-01
• PseudonymousUser said “deadline was set to 2011-12-31, so assuming typo” on 2012-01-01
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.
• PseudonymousUser said “12,217.56, was pretty darn close” on 2012-01-01