There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019.

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

• Arenamontanus estimated 65% on 2009-10-14
• im estimated 50% on 2009-10-15
• anonym estimated 20% on 2009-10-18
• gwern estimated 60% and said “hard to think of a company which has 1 billion+ peoples’ records and keeps them in a form which can be leaked. facebook? google?” on 2010-10-19
• themusicgod1 said “yahoo? 500 million people’s emails * 2 emails per person? Does 1 record = 1 person here or does 1 record mean 1 field ?” on 2016-10-06
• Athrithalix estimated 30% on 2018-02-22
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2018-11-25
• pranomostro estimated 25% on 2018-11-25
• deleteyourbrain estimated 80% on 2019-04-26
• Bruno Parga said “Sounds like this qualifies: https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/over-one-billion-consumers-exposed/” on 2019-12-29
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2019-12-31.