There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012.
- Arenamontanus estimated 66% on 2009-10-14
- max estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
- max judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
- Matt judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
- im estimated 80% on 2009-10-15
- anonym judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
- anonym judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
- anonym estimated 95% and said “The probabilities are very different for “incident occurring” and that plus “it being reported”.” on 2009-10-17
- gwern estimated 60% on 2010-10-19
- kallman estimated 90% and said “no doubt in my mind, but treating it like airplane crashes – not neccessarily every year.” on 2010-11-23
- gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_breach#2011 http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/04/27/technology-playstation-data-breach.html largest famous one only 77m; but http://datalossdb.org/index/largest lists 130m from Heartland Payment Systems” on 2013-01-01
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.
Please log in to respond to or judge prediction