There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012.

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• Arenamontanus estimated 66% on 2009-10-14
• max estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
• max   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
• Matt   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
• im estimated 80% on 2009-10-15
• anonym   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
• anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• anonym estimated 95% and said “The probabilities are very different for “incident occurring” and that plus “it being reported”.” on 2009-10-17
• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-10-19
• kallman estimated 90% and said “no doubt in my mind, but treating it like airplane crashes – not neccessarily every year.” on 2010-11-23
• gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_breach#2011 http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/04/27/technology-playstation-data-breach.html largest famous one only 77m; but http://datalossdb.org/index/largest lists 130m from Heartland Payment Systems” on 2013-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.