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Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.

  • gwern estimated 75% on 2011-12-27
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 65% on 2011-12-27
  • Ken estimated 80% on 2012-01-02
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 45% on 2012-01-23
  • gwern said “2 entries since 27 December 2011. marking right.on 2012-01-27
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-01-27.