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There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010.

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.

  • Arenamontanus estimated 50% on 2009-10-14
  • Jack estimated 15% on 2009-10-14
  • Vladimir_Golovin estimated 3% on 2009-10-19
  • faws estimated 8% on 2009-10-22
  • Pavitra estimated 4% on 2009-10-23
  • gwern estimated 2% and said “I can’t think of any plausible such accidents. Even ferry accidents in the Third world don’t involve more than a few hundred people.” on 2010-07-29
  • ggreer estimated 95% on 2010-09-30
  • ggreer estimated 5% and said “Gah I keep getting these percentages backwards.” on 2010-09-30
  • twanvl estimated 1% on 2010-09-30
  • gwern said “has anyone heard of such an accident? I haven’t. marking wrong.” on 2010-10-14
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-10-14.