The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2011-12-27
• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-12-27
• faws estimated 0% and said “Just a magmatic eruption, not a supereruption? Rounding down to 0% anyway since the last one was 70,000 years ago. ” on 2011-12-27
• PseudonymousUser said “right, a non-super magmatic eruption would do” on 2011-12-27
• endoself estimated 0% on 2011-12-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2011-12-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 7% on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2018-12-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2018-12-19
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-01.