'Groupon will trade less than 25% of its current share price and may restructure / fold' —dia80

Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2011-12-27
• gwern estimated 40% and said “https://news.ycombinator.com/reply?id=3395475&whence=item%3fid%3d3395201 will judge compared groupon’s current price of $23.16 so = <$5.79. which actually sounds a bit low to me…” on 2011-12-27
• Sarokrae estimated 60% on 2011-12-30
• wedrifid said ““and may restructure/fold”? That doesn’t seem to change anything!” on 2011-12-31
• gwern said “currently $4.86. marking right.” on 2013-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.