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There will be a storm/hurricane event killing more than 5000 people before 14 October 2010.

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.

  • Arenamontanus estimated 67% on 2009-10-14
  • anonym   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
  • anonym estimated 50% on 2009-10-17
  • gwern estimated 5% on 2010-07-30
  • gwern said “Maybe I missed a tsunami or tidal wave like the Christmas ones, but offhand I don’t recall any such catastrophes.” on 2010-10-14
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-10-14.