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HP MoR: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' —shminux

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

  • gwern estimated 10% on 2011-12-28
  • gwern said “prediction short-circuits on publication of chapter 99, when prediction can be judged. 2014 due-date wild guess based on slow progress to dateon 2011-12-28
  • gwern said “low probability: ch100 sounds too soon, shades of conjunction fallacy in adducing motive as well as event, and most generally think quirrel is quirrelmort, so how could quirrel die fighting voldemort? on 2011-12-28
  • gwern said “potential judgment problems: what if voldemort’s personality tries to take over and do harmful things with/to harry, and quirrel commits suicide? etc.on 2011-12-28
  • shokwave estimated 5% and said “if quirrel enters conflict with voldemort with the goal of keeping harry alive and end result is dead quirrel, i’d count this prediction as right. it seems unlikely for gwerns reasons, as well as quirrel’s extreme self intereston 2011-12-28
  • RobertLumley estimated 10% and said “Don’t think it’s particularly likely, but I don’t think MoR has been rather predictable…on 2011-12-29
  • RobertLumley said “(It has, however, been awesome.)on 2011-12-29
  • faws estimated 2% on 2011-12-29
  • Anubhav said “What if it’s faked?on 2011-12-29
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-12-29
  • Sarokrae estimated 5% on 2011-12-30
  • fergus estimated 5% on 2012-01-01
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 5% on 2012-01-01
  • Mqrius estimated 4% and said “As mentioned above, some staging to this effect might take place. But even then I don’t expect Quirrel to die (fake or otherwise).on 2012-01-01
  • Larklight estimated 1% on 2012-01-03
  • Grognor estimated 5% on 2012-01-11
  • Anubhav estimated 2% on 2012-01-11
  • gwern changed their prediction from “MoR: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' —shminux” on 2012-04-09
  • Anubhav estimated 0% and said “What the hell was I thinking?on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 2% on 2012-04-20
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2012-04-26
  • ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.