Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.

Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29

• gwern estimated 95% on 2011-12-29
• gwern said “due date decided by the usual actuarial method” on 2011-12-29
• gwern said “prediction prompted by the observation that he didn’t sound very sharp in his christmas tree lecture this year, if anyone was wondering” on 2011-12-29
• Anubhav estimated 90% on 2011-12-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2011-12-29
• endoself estimated 85% and said “This assumes no radical changes in medical technology.” on 2011-12-31
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2011-12-31
• muflax estimated 95% on 2011-12-31
• gwern said “I’m fine with implicitly assuming no radical medical changes before 2025 – http://lesswrong.com/lw/8yp/prediction_is_hard_especially_of_medicine/” on 2011-12-31
• papermachine estimated 95% and said “I’m with gwern on this one.” on 2011-12-31
• clemux estimated 90% on 2011-12-31
• Jayson Virissimo said “Does he have an understudy in the wings or does he know something we don’t?” on 2012-01-15
• chemotaxis101 estimated 80% on 2012-07-01
• Andrew MacFie estimated 99% on 2016-05-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-05-09
• pranomostro estimated 95% on 2018-12-19