'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known in 17 days

  • gwern estimated 25% on 2011-12-31
  • gwern said ““a system with basic vision, basic sound processing, basic movement control, and basic language abilities, with all of these things being essentially learnt rather than preprogrammed…”on 2011-12-31
  • gwern said ““…It will also be able to solve a range of simple problems, including novel ones.” http://www.vetta.org/2011/12/goodbye-2011-hello-2012/on 2011-12-31
  • JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2011-12-31
  • endoself said “My internal model of Shane is surprised by that post, though I did not have much confidence in that model.on 2011-12-31
  • endoself said “Does “proto-AGI” imply that a full AGI will not be developed in 8 years?on 2011-12-31
  • Elithrion estimated 20% on 2013-02-01
  • lavalamp estimated 30% on 2013-02-03
  • Qiaochu estimated 10% on 2013-02-04
  • Tuxedage estimated 30% on 2013-02-06
  • halfwit estimated 30% on 2013-06-09
  • themusicgod1 estimated 60% on 2016-10-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 19% on 2016-10-10
  • wassname estimated 20% on 2018-08-12
  • pranomostro estimated 20% and said “This feels like cheating.on 2018-12-19
  • pranomostro estimated 15% on 2018-12-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 8% and said “Not much time left. on 2018-12-19
  • Baeboo estimated 10% on 2018-12-20

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