Bitcoin/USD prices: “best case, 10 bucks. Worst case, 5 bucks.” —kiba

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

  • gwern estimated 30% on 2011-12-31
  • gwern said “this is the end-price on 31 december 2012, not a moving average or high/low thing.on 2011-12-31
  • gwern said “bitcoin seems too long-term volatile to wind up, after another entire year (it’s only been seriously traded around a year!), in such a moderate band.on 2011-12-31
  • Larklight estimated 10% on 2012-01-03
  • holycow81 estimated 40% on 2012-12-19
  • Tuxedage estimated 10% on 2012-12-28
  • gwern said “current mtgox: $13.4. well outside the $5-10 rangeon 2012-12-31
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.

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