Bashar al-Assad will not be president of Syria on Dec 31 2012

Created by georgesdelatour on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• georgesdelatour estimated 67% on 2012-01-01
• georgesdelatour changed their prediction from “Bashar al-Assad will not be president of Syria by Dec 31 2012” on 2012-01-01
• gwern said “effective dupe of http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4213” on 2012-01-02
• chimpsky estimated 80% on 2012-06-07
• RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2012-06-08
• Qiaochu estimated 30% on 2012-11-10
• ygert estimated 5% on 2012-12-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2012-12-27
• gwern said “he’s still there, is he not?” on 2012-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.
• georgesdelatour said “Total fail on my part. Back in 1989 pretty much every east European communist government was gone by the year’s end. I thought the Arab Spring would work out like that. It clearly hasn’t.” on 2012-12-31