'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin

Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2012-01-01
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5ktd 40%” on 2012-01-01
• Anubhav estimated 5% on 2012-01-02
• faws estimated 16% on 2012-01-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2012-01-02
• muflax estimated 5% on 2012-01-02
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 5% on 2012-01-02
• faws said “I wonder why everyone else is giving this so low odds? Don’t you think they’d have done a proper test if they had actually working bombs, just to recover face from the fizzle in 2006? ” on 2012-01-02
• gwern said “don’t think they can afford to use up more. the intelligence estimates I’ve heard of put them at like a max of 5 bombs – you don’t sacrifice 20% of your nuclear arsenal just to save face (and risk proving your failure!)” on 2012-01-02
• Larklight estimated 10% on 2012-01-03
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% on 2012-02-08
• chemotaxis101 estimated 20% on 2012-07-01
• Vulture estimated 20% on 2014-01-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2018-12-19
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.