By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB.

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

• Porejide estimated 10% on 2012-01-02
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2012-01-02
• Anubhav estimated 10% and said “A lot can happen in a year.” on 2012-01-02
• gwern estimated 25% and said “one especially motivated programmer on a coding bender…” on 2012-01-02
• muflax estimated 5% and said “PB doesn’t even have working email, but we get a new motivated programmer? Also seems difficult to integrate into the UI.” on 2012-01-02
• Larklight estimated 2% and said “I thought PB was basically dead as only Gwern used it.” on 2012-01-03
• muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.