Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.

• gwern estimated 99% on 2012-01-02
• gwern said “I gave 1% chance to RP being nominee, and gary johnson doesn’t significantly improve the odds; http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3018” on 2012-01-02
• gwern said “prompted by http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5ku5” on 2012-01-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 98% on 2012-01-02
• Ken estimated 99% on 2012-01-02
• Larklight estimated 90% and said “Mainly Romney” on 2012-01-03
• ahartell estimated 99% on 2012-01-03
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 100% on 2012-04-11
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2012-11-07.