“The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare” —jdgalt

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-06-28.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2012-01-02
• gwern said “don’t actually know when the 2011 decisions come out; can’t be that long can it?” on 2012-01-02
• gwern said “original; http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5ku5” on 2012-01-02
• Larklight estimated 80% and said “They find most things constitutional” on 2012-01-03
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 65% on 2012-03-04
• RandomThinker estimated 85% and said “Larklight is right. Of course they will.” on 2012-03-05
• RandomThinker estimated 75% and said “I over-estimated. Supremes are very partisan these days. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/us/health-care-act-offers-roberts-a-signature-case.html?_r=1&hp” on 2012-03-12
• RandomThinker estimated 70% on 2012-03-12
• lavalamp estimated 65% on 2012-03-26
• RandomThinker estimated 40% and said “not looking good” on 2012-03-29
• average_joe estimated 68% on 2012-03-29
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-03-30” on 2012-04-03
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 55% and said “Downgrading per the arguments against from the judges. The 10th amendment would pretty much have to be meaningless for the individual mandate to be constitutional. I still think it will be upheld though, since I think the judges want it to be law.” on 2012-04-05
• RobertLumley   judged this prediction right on 2012-06-28.