“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 0% on 2012-01-02
  • gwern said ““…The US will send aid but will not directly engage Israel’s enemies. Japan will join in on Israel’s side after the radicals sink oil tankers on the way to Japan. The Russians will sit this one out.on 2012-01-02
  • gwern said “…Turkey may or may not take part, but if they do it will be against Israel." http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5ku5on 2012-01-02
  • gwern said “OP is a case study in narrative or conjunction fallcieson 2012-01-02
  • papermachine estimated 0% on 2012-01-02
  • Anubhav estimated 0% and said “JD Galt should meet Vishwabandhu Gupta (an ex-Income Tax Commissioner who recommended India wage war on Switzerland) some time. I’m sure they’ll have a lot to talk about. on 2012-01-02
  • Anubhav said “Wait…. ALL of this in a single year? This goes beyond narrative plausibility bias… on 2012-01-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2012-01-02
  • RobertLumley estimated 0% on 2012-01-02
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% and said “Also, the pilot of the first of Iran’s aircraft to drop a nuclear device will have eaten a tuna sandwich for breakfast the morning of the flight.on 2012-01-02
  • Jayson Virissimo said “Whoops, that last part wasn’t really part of the original prediction. My bad.on 2012-01-02
  • faws estimated 0% on 2012-01-02
  • Isaac estimated 0% on 2012-01-03
  • Larklight estimated 0% on 2012-01-03
  • ahartell estimated 0% on 2012-01-04
  • Gedusa estimated 0% on 2012-01-04
  • nationaleloquence estimated 0% on 2012-01-06
  • nationaleloquence   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-06.
  • gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2012-01-06.
  • Grognor estimated 0% and said “that’s a lot of damn conjunctionson 2012-01-07
  • smijer estimated 0% and said “Several probabilities strung together reduce the overall probability. Just a major war starting in Middle East would estimate at 10-15%. China’s involvement is a low probability and reduces overall probability quite a bit. on 2012-01-10
  • wallowinmaya estimated 0% on 2012-01-11
  • beo_shaffer estimated 0% on 2012-01-12
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2012-04-25
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 0% on 2012-07-01
  • alecbrooks estimated 0% on 2012-11-17
  • Emanuel Rylke   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.

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