If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2012-01-02
• Jayson Virissimo changed their prediction from “If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will goes on a “shooting spree” and will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn.” on 2012-01-02
• Jayson Virissimo changed their prediction from “If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn.” on 2012-01-02
• Jayson Virissimo said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5knt” on 2012-01-02
• Jayson Virissimo said “For the purpose of this prediction, I think defining a “shooting spree” as any event whereby two or more persons are penetrated with a metal projectile from a firearm in a timespan of less than 30 minutes would be reasonable.” on 2012-01-02
• Anubhav estimated 1% on 2012-01-02
• gwern said “I’d be more comfortable if I knew what the examples were for obama, bush, and clinton.” on 2012-01-02
• Larklight estimated 5% on 2012-01-03
• Konkvistador estimated 1% on 2012-01-03
• RandomThinker estimated 10% and said “Time is too short or I’d raise percentages. Takes a while for the crazies to mobilize. Also, I assume the shooter doesn’t have to use the exact words “political climate” just mention something political.” on 2012-07-09
• JoshuaZ said “Do they need to directly use the phrase “political climate” or will something related count? ” on 2012-07-11
• Jayson Virissimo said “It doesn’t have to be that particular string. I think any fairly clear synonym should count.” on 2012-07-11
• Pablo estimated 2% on 2012-09-29
• RandomThinker said “Well there was a shooting spree but I haven’t heard anything about “political climate”” on 2013-01-03
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-03.
• RandomThinker said “this should have been rephrased as “bombing spree” and it might have been very close” on 2013-04-18