There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018.

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2022-09-25.

• Porejide estimated 60% on 2012-01-02
• Porejide said “As determined by the consensus view of relevant experts queried on a q-and-a site (quora-like) if the answer is not obvious. ” on 2012-01-02
• Porejide said “see http://www.wired.com/autopia/2008/01/gm-says-driverl/” on 2012-01-02
• gwern estimated 55% on 2012-01-02
• qap estimated 60% and said “http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57520188-76/googles-sergey-brin-youll-ride-in-robot-cars-within-5-years/http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2424312/Teslas-Elon-Musk-says-self-driving-cars-produced-2016.html” on 2013-09-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% and said “you’ll ride on one, sure, but you won’t own it.” on 2016-10-09
• timmartin estimated 10% on 2017-12-31
• Porejide   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-09-25.