Chris Brown will be arrested for assault, domestic violence, or criminal damage before 2013.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2012-01-02
• Jayson Virissimo said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5knt” on 2012-01-02
• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-01-02
• gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Brown_%28American_entertainer%29 no further arrests mentioned. marking wrong” on 2013-01-26
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-26.