LessWrong: By 2013, date last edited shows up next to comments that have been edited. (Would foil this evil plan, for instance. http://bit.ly/w0lkyQ )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

• Anubhav estimated 4% on 2012-01-02
• Anubhav said “Clickable: http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5kxd” on 2012-01-02
• muflax estimated 2% and said “That’s a pretty major change to the code base and those have been pretty rare, even for much more popular changes.” on 2012-01-02
• Anubhav estimated 1% and said “Revising downward, then. Come to think of it, I was probably privileging the hypothesis anyway.” on 2012-01-02
• ahartell estimated 5% on 2012-01-03
• ahartell said “Would this prediction be correct if both original post date and last update time are displayed?” on 2012-01-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2012-01-04
• Anubhav said “@ahartell: Yes.” on 2012-01-04
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-26.