The Less Wrong user calcsam will publicly deconvert from Mormonism before 2015.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-12-01.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 33% on 2012-01-02
• muflax estimated 10% and said “Much more likely he simply disappears.” on 2012-01-02
• gwern estimated 10% and said “agreed, he’s publicly committed pretty heavily” on 2012-01-02
• Jayson Virissimo said “muflax, good point” on 2012-01-02
• papermachine estimated 5% on 2012-01-22
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% on 2012-01-22
• Jayson Virissimo said “PM’ed calcsam via LW. Awaiting a response.” on 2015-01-01
• Jayson Virissimo said “Still no response.” on 2015-04-20
• JoshuaZ said “Given lack of responses, does anyone object to marking this wrong? ” on 2015-09-08
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-12-01.