I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-01-02
• Jayson Virissimo said “If I don’t make any edits for a few weeks after expiration go ahead and score this correct.” on 2012-01-02
• Anubhav estimated 0% and said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Mexico#Crime_rates Base rate was 1.3 per 10k in 2004, seems to be declining. Nope, not happening. ” on 2012-01-02
• Anubhav said “Wait, stats for Mexico, not Mexico city. Crime in Mexico City is apparently increasing, but unless it’s ~ 100 times greater than the figure cited, it’s still not 1%. ” on 2012-01-02
• gwern estimated 0% on 2012-01-02
• faws estimated 1% and said “The methodology does not seem able to distinguish bewteen murder and other causes of death, like traffic accidents, or even other causes of posting hiatus. Most of the 1% is for surviving, but not reporting back for some reason or other. ” on 2012-01-02
• Jayson Virissimo said “faws, my comment was a joke. If I am not heard from just get someone with mod powers to withdraw/make private the prediction.” on 2012-01-02
• Jayson Virissimo said “Unless, of course, you here otherwise from a newspaper/Less Wrong meetup attendee.” on 2012-01-02
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% and said “stay alive, don’t wreck my accuracy graph” on 2012-01-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Per Faws. ” on 2012-01-02
• Ken estimated 0% on 2012-01-02
• Larklight estimated 0% on 2012-01-03
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-17.