I will be defrauded, stolen from, robbed, burgled, or assaulted during my stay in Mexico City.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2012-01-02
• Anubhav estimated 2% and said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Mexico#Crime_ratesBasing estimate off this, compensating for Mexico city’s higher and increasing crime rates.” on 2012-01-02
• gwern estimated 5% and said “add points for being naive young foreigner” on 2012-01-02
• JoshuaZ said “What constitutes defrauded? That’s a very broad category. ” on 2012-01-02
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-17.