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General AI will not be built by 2013

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 95% on 2012-01-02
  • JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02
  • gwern estimated 95% on 2012-01-02
  • Isaac estimated 100% on 2012-01-03
  • ahartell said “Why will this be judged on the first day of 2013?” on 2012-01-03
  • ahartell said “Why will this be judged on the first day of 2013?” on 2012-01-03
  • ahartell said “(Sorry about that, and about this. Is there a way to retract double-comments?)” on 2012-01-03
  • Anubhav estimated 99% and said “[ahartell’s game log] ACHIEVEMENT UNLOCKED! Discovered 1 shortcoming of PredictionBook’s interface. Next achievement: Discover 5 shortcomings.” on 2012-01-04
  • Anubhav said “And yes, the due date needs to be fixed. Unless Joshua meant ‘in 2012’.” on 2012-01-04
  • JoshuaZ said “Er, that should have been “by” not in. Sorry. Editing accordingly. ” on 2012-01-04
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 97% on 2012-01-04
  • faws estimated 98% on 2012-01-04
  • gimpf estimated 100% on 2012-01-04
  • ahartell estimated 100% on 2012-01-04
  • wnewman said “Is “built” when it is assembled and powered on, or when it has trained enough to easily demonstrate humanlike or better generality? There could easily be >1 year of training/learning between those times.” on 2012-01-06
  • muflax estimated 100% and said “@wnewmann “My AI totally works, it’s just learning right now.” is hard to test. I’d say “built” = “actual demonstration”.” on 2012-01-06
  • Grognor estimated 100% on 2012-01-08
  • modulus estimated 99% on 2012-01-09
  • wnewman said “@muflax, I’m thinking of e.g. a system convincingly demonstrating capability around Apr. 2013 after being powered on 11 months earlier. Arguably that’s “not built by 2013-01-01” but I consider that a stretch.” on 2012-01-09
  • muflax said “@wnewman I agree, but it would be hard to judge the prediction. What’s the deadline? What if we find out in 2020 that Cyc is a working GAI and was secretly plotting to take over the world?” on 2012-01-09
  • wallowinmaya estimated 97% on 2012-01-11
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 99% on 2012-01-11
  • smijer estimated 99% on 2012-01-11
  • rrden estimated 70% on 2012-01-14
  • RandomThinker estimated 99% on 2012-05-05
  • Leo estimated 99% on 2012-05-05
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 100% on 2012-05-06
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 98% on 2012-07-01
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.
  • Tuxedage said “99.99” on 2013-01-03