Humans will continue to have at least one functioning probe on Martian surface or a satellite around Mars for all of 2012

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 98% on 2012-01-02
• gwern estimated 95% and said “what’s currently there?” on 2012-01-02
• JoshuaZ said “Opportunity is on the surface. The US has a sat in orbit and the ESA has one also. Curiosity should arrive in August. ” on 2012-01-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 100% on 2012-08-21
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.