No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
- JoshuaZ estimated 96% on 2012-01-02
- gwern estimated 99% and said “seems like an easy gimme. no success for the past century, so the odds are probably something like 1 in 100s for any given year” on 2012-01-02
- Porejide estimated 99% on 2012-01-02
- Ken estimated 100% on 2012-01-02
- faws estimated 100% on 2012-01-02
- HonoreDB estimated 100% on 2012-01-03
- Isaac estimated 100% on 2012-01-03
- Larklight estimated 0% on 2012-01-03
- Larklight estimated 100% and said “Ooops!” on 2012-01-03
- Anubhav estimated 100% on 2012-01-03
- Emanuel Rylke estimated 99% on 2012-01-03
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 100% on 2012-01-03
- PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2012-01-03
- ahartell estimated 100% on 2012-01-03
- Gedusa estimated 100% on 2012-01-04
- gimpf estimated 100% on 2012-01-04
- nationaleloquence estimated 100% on 2012-01-06
- nationaleloquence judged this prediction right on 2012-01-06.
- Anubhav judged this prediction unknown on 2012-01-06.
- Anubhav said “Copy-pasting: “Only judge this prediction once its outcome is known. Record your opinion above, not here!”” on 2012-01-06
- Mqrius estimated 100% and said “I think the chance is less than 1 in 200, I don’t see any evidence that suggests a 1% chance.” on 2012-01-06
- Grognor estimated 100% on 2012-01-07
- RobertLumley estimated 99% on 2012-01-09
- smijer estimated 99% and said “I really wish we could add some decimals for those that approach one or zero.” on 2012-01-11
- Nic_Smith estimated 99% on 2012-01-12
- Laurent Bossavit estimated 99% on 2012-01-12
- wallowinmaya estimated 99% on 2012-01-12
- yahood estimated 100% on 2012-01-13
- OptiMind estimated 99% and said “.9995%” on 2012-02-13
- RandomThinker estimated 99% on 2012-05-05
- Leo estimated 100% on 2012-05-05
- beo_shaffer estimated 100% on 2012-05-06
- chemotaxis101 estimated 99% on 2012-07-01
- Pablo estimated 100% on 2012-09-29
- NathanMcKnight said “Does detection count as contact? ” on 2012-09-29
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.