HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.

• JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2012-01-02
• JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02
• gwern estimated 95% and said “last update september 2011; even with 4 month delays, prediction still succeeds. and ch78 complete as of 25 dec 2011, ch79 in progress – so if he posts the two chapters, does that immediately count? if so, I think you are way underconfident” on 2012-01-02
• gwern said “see status note in lede to http://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/77/Harry_Potter_and_the_Methods_of_Rationality” on 2012-01-02
• nialo estimated 98% and said “because overconfidence is fun” on 2012-01-02
• Porejide estimated 98% on 2012-01-02
• Ken estimated 95% on 2012-01-02
• JoshuaZ said “gwern, I’m taking a bit of an outside and noting how long fanfics frequently fail to get finished. A common apparent pattern is not an abtrupt stop but chapters simply becoming less and less frequent and then eventually dying out. ” on 2012-01-02
• gwern said “reference class tennis – MOR is not the usual fanfic but an important recruitment tool for SIAI/LW and donations (witness that donation drive!) if SIAI permits eliezer to drop MoR then I have badly misjudged their collective competence” on 2012-01-02
• faws estimated 94% and said “When a fanfic is abandoned that usually seems to involve the author either having started several other fanfics they like better or dropping off the face of the internet. ” on 2012-01-02
• HonoreDB estimated 98% on 2012-01-03
• PseudonymousUser estimated 94% on 2012-01-03
• Isaac estimated 100% on 2012-01-03
• Larklight estimated 99% on 2012-01-03
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 90% on 2012-01-03
• Anubhav estimated 98% and said “‘Reference class tennis.’ I really need to figure out a good anki card format for this kind of stuff. ” on 2012-01-03
• RobertLumley estimated 97% on 2012-01-03
• ahartell estimated 100% on 2012-01-03
• faws estimated 99% and said “Just saw that chapter 79 is also finished, they just need to be posted on separately. ” on 2012-01-03
• Gedusa estimated 99% on 2012-01-04
• gimpf estimated 85% on 2012-01-04
• Grognor estimated 99% and said “Eliezer has stated that he would hate himself if he left it unfinished, or something to that effect anyway” on 2012-01-05
• wallowinmaya estimated 95% on 2012-01-11
• beo_shaffer estimated 95% on 2012-01-13
• sboosali estimated 99% and said “the author (according to the author, as of december 2011) has already written one chapter, and is writing the second. that’s two updates.” on 2012-01-20
• drethelin estimated 99% on 2012-03-02
• Isaac   judged this prediction right on 2012-03-16.