“Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods” (top 100)

Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “original: FiftyTwo 1% http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5lez top 100 defined in http://www.internetretailer.com/top500/list/” on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “top 500: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5136” on 2012-01-03
• lavalamp estimated 8% on 2012-06-08
• gwern said “biggest I’ve heard of is wordpress, but that’s not in the top 500. marking both wrong unless someone comes up with a name” on 2013-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.