“Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods” (top 500)

Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “original: FiftyTwo 5% http://lesswrong.com/lw/94k/new_years_prediction_thread_2012/5lez top 100 defined in http://www.internetretailer.com/top500/list/” on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “top 100: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5135” on 2012-01-03
• lavalamp estimated 13% on 2012-06-08
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.