By the end of the year Namecoin would be closer to Bitcoin in value than to the early-2012 value of Namecoin.

Created by marchdown on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.

• marchdown estimated 78% on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “could you nail down the namecoin bitcoin ratio (with USD as the common unit, I suppose)? today, tomorrow, an average of this week maybe?” on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “marking wrong. In feb 2012, namecoin was trading at ~0.005 bitcoins per namecoin, and right now it’s trading at 0.004! https://exchange.bitparking.com/main” on 2012-12-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-27.