“A new Microsoft CEO” [Ballmer steps down] —Cringely

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-01-05
• gwern said “FWIW, cringely predicted Ballmer would not step down in 2011; http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2085” on 2012-01-05
• gwern said “somewhat redundant with http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4944” on 2012-01-05
• gwern said “and the replacement will be Eric Schmidt: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5186” on 2012-01-05
• Anubhav said “I really think this prediction should be withdrawn. With 4944, you’re basically double-counting the same prediction. (Unless you count fringe cases like him stepping down, but no replacement being found by Jan 1.)” on 2012-01-06
• PseudonymousUser said “Double-counting happens all the time on PB, even when you have two estimates on one prediction” on 2012-01-06
• Anubhav said “If you have to compare this to that, I’d say this is equivalent to repeatedly posting the same estimate (40%. 40%. 40%. 40%…) on a prediction.” on 2012-01-06
• dhoe estimated 10% on 2012-08-12
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.