Bitcoin >$9000 by February.

Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• gwern estimated 0% on 2012-01-06
• gwern said “if it happens, my mtgox visor will shatter as I exclaim – it’s – it’s OVER 9000!!!” on 2012-01-06
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% and said “would hate to get this one wrong” on 2012-01-06
• Anubhav estimated 2% on 2012-01-06
• PseudonymousUser said “$9000*0.02=$180 so you might want to buy as much as possible” on 2012-01-06
• Anubhav estimated 0% and said “You’re right, 2% is overconfident by a few orders of magnitude.” on 2012-01-06
• Mqrius estimated 0% and said “Assuming 1 Bitcoin here, although the question could also mean the entire Bitcoin economy, in which case I vote 100%.” on 2012-01-06
• Grognor estimated 0% and said “I’m going to have such good calibration for “almost certain” predictions” on 2012-01-07
• faws estimated 0% on 2012-01-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2012-01-07
• kiba estimated 0% on 2012-01-08
• Mqrius said “If this happened I’d be quite rich.” on 2012-01-12
• saturn estimated 0% on 2012-01-14
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-01-17
• spqr0a1 estimated 0% on 2012-01-17
• yurifury estimated 0% on 2012-01-18
• Nic_Smith estimated 0% on 2012-01-19
• baslisks estimated 0% and said “unless you have shitloads of money and mess the market up, hell no.” on 2012-01-20
• _W_ estimated 0% and said “Would love to be wrong on this one, but can’t see how it can happen. Even Bill Gates’ total net worth put into buying bitcoins couldn’t get the price that high more than momentarily.” on 2012-01-25
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-01.