The creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget.

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-27.

  • jes5199 estimated 60% on 2009-10-15
  • jes5199 changed the deadline from “on 2010-10-15” and made the prediction visible to everyone on 2009-10-15
  • jes5199 changed the deadline from “on 2010-10-15on 2009-10-15
  • othercriteria estimated 30% on 2009-10-15
  • Matt said “what are some examples of “some sort of lesswrong.com ideology” that might undermine the site?on 2009-10-15
  • im said ““Undermine” is badly specified.on 2009-10-15
  • ChristianKl  judged this prediction right on 2009-10-15.
  • ChristianKl said “Happened already by translating 30% into “70% against”. Those two things are psychologically different and people might have different accuracy.on 2009-10-15
  • Matt  judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
  • Matt said “‘will allow’ and ‘to leak’ suggest that the prediction requires changeon 2009-10-15
  • kess3r said “This would have been better if it was more of a prediction of some specific events and less of a catcall against Less Wrong.on 2009-10-15
  • DanArmak said “The relevant LW ideology is: this prediction is too vague to be useful, and can’t be wagered on.on 2009-10-16
  • mycroft65536 said “But does that undermine “an otherwise useful gadget”?on 2009-10-17
  • Larks estimated 2% on 2009-10-17
  • jes5199 said “It’s my prerogative to make useless predictions, yeah?on 2009-10-20
  • wasistdas estimated 20% on 2009-11-10
  • gwern estimated 15% and said “ChristianKl, that’s not LW ideology. It’s basic logic (excluded middle). This whole site is about conforming to normative logic/statistics!on 2010-07-29
  • gwern said “12 days and no one has bothered to come up with anything but a trivially wrong example (30 = 70 against). so I’m marking this wrongon 2010-10-27
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2010-10-27.

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