The creators of this site will allow some sort of ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget.

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-27.

  • jes5199 estimated 60% on 2009-10-15
  • jes5199 changed the deadline from “on 2010-10-15” and made the prediction on 2009-10-15
  • jes5199 changed the deadline from “on 2010-10-15on 2009-10-15
  • othercriteria estimated 30% on 2009-10-15
  • Matt said “what are some examples of “some sort of ideology” that might undermine the site?on 2009-10-15
  • im said ““Undermine” is badly specified.on 2009-10-15
  • ChristianKl   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-15.
  • ChristianKl said “Happened already by translating 30% into “70% against”. Those two things are psychologically different and people might have different accuracy.on 2009-10-15
  • Matt   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
  • Matt said “‘will allow’ and ‘to leak’ suggest that the prediction requires changeon 2009-10-15
  • kess3r said “This would have been better if it was more of a prediction of some specific events and less of a catcall against Less Wrong.on 2009-10-15
  • DanArmak said “The relevant LW ideology is: this prediction is too vague to be useful, and can’t be wagered on.on 2009-10-16
  • mycroft65536 said “But does that undermine “an otherwise useful gadget”?on 2009-10-17
  • Larks estimated 2% on 2009-10-17
  • jes5199 said “It’s my prerogative to make useless predictions, yeah?on 2009-10-20
  • wasistdas estimated 20% on 2009-11-10
  • gwern estimated 15% and said “ChristianKl, that’s not LW ideology. It’s basic logic (excluded middle). This whole site is about conforming to normative logic/statistics!on 2010-07-29
  • gwern said “12 days and no one has bothered to come up with anything but a trivially wrong example (30 = 70 against). so I’m marking this wrongon 2010-10-27
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-10-27.

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