The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction.

Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

• kiba estimated 5% on 2012-01-07
• gwern estimated 5% and said “hasn’t shown up yet” on 2012-01-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 6% on 2012-01-07
• Anubhav estimated 2% on 2012-01-08
• modulus estimated 1% and said “Peak opportunity to do it was when btc value and media attention were high” on 2012-01-09
• _W_ estimated 5% and said “I include the chance of miner domination in this estimate, though it is not exactly a flaw in the /protocol/” on 2012-01-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2012-01-09
• Mqrius estimated 2% on 2012-01-12
• Mqrius said “This is about the current protocol, not any add-on features that might be created since now, right?” on 2012-01-12
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2012-01-17
• lavalamp estimated 1% on 2012-06-08
• learnmethis estimated 1% and said “I’m taking “crash” to mean that market value falls below $1 USD, or that it proves essentially impractical to find buyers for bitcoins.” on 2012-09-26
• kiba estimated 2% on 2012-11-07
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2012-11-09
• Tuxedage estimated 0% on 2012-12-28
• kiba estimated 0% and said “Not going to happen.” on 2012-12-30
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.