I will become a Peter Thiel Fellow.

Created by Grognor on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-08-06; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-05.

• Grognor estimated 7% on 2012-01-08
• gwern estimated 4% on 2012-01-08
• Grognor said “yeah, you’re right. excessive optimism on my part.” on 2012-01-09
• saturn estimated 1% on 2012-01-14
• saturn said “Last time 24 were accepted out of ~400 applicants; about 6%. I adjusted downward because there will probably be more applicants this time, and all the previous winners seem to be more qualified than Grognor.” on 2012-01-14
• Grognor   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-05.