“Square will get bought out by Amex or Visa” —Brian Breslin

Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-01-08
• gwern said “the Square that is meant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_%28application%29” on 2012-01-08
• gwern said “#1 http://brianbreslin.com/2012-predictions/” on 2012-01-08
• gwern said “I don’t know too much about the payment space, but WP lists a lot of VCs and their valuation of 1b sounds like it might not be the ceiling – will it reach the point the VCs force a sale in 2012? dunno” on 2012-01-08
• gwern said “but I would be a lot more confident in, say, the next 5 years for any seller: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5243” on 2012-01-08
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.