There will be a referendum on Scottish independence

Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.

• modulus estimated 60% on 2012-01-09
• gwern estimated 55% on 2012-01-09
• scav estimated 90% and said “It’s an election promise and central defining policy of the party that holds an absolute majority of seats in the Scottish parliament. But a yes vote is doubtful, as is recognition by the UK government.” on 2012-01-10
• modulus said “The SNP hasn’t promised it for the time frame of the prediction though, IIRC.” on 2012-01-13
• scav said “The “known on” date makes this problematic. It can only be known on 2014-1-1 that the referendum is agreed on and due in Oct, not that it is certain. If that’s good enough we can probably judge it right already.” on 2012-10-11
• scav estimated 99% and said “it’s looking very unlikely to not happen. Still can’t judge it as known either way.” on 2014-03-10
• rebellionkid estimated 99% on 2014-05-24
• dk said “The author of the prediction made a comment specifying that the time frame was part of the prediction.” on 2014-06-15
• dk   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-06-15.
• rebellionkid said “That’s not how most people seem to have interpreted the prediction/the comment. ” on 2014-06-16
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction unknown on 2014-06-16.
• Temeraire estimated 99% on 2014-06-17
• dk   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-06-18.
• Temeraire   judged this prediction unknown on 2014-06-20.
• dk   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-06-22.
• Temeraire   judged this prediction unknown on 2014-07-08.
• scav   judged this prediction right on 2014-09-14.